Ultimate Florida Challenge 2016 Posts

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Ultimate Florida Challenge 2016 Posts

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Started 6 years ago by Santiago
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Scareman
Member

My predictions as of 10 PM on March 22nd as two vessels are racing into the finish of the Ultimate Florida Challenge:

My prediction for LRock_CrazyRussian - winds die until mid morning and build out of NW so speed picks up and finish in 7 to 9 hours from now, and I will estimate they arrive at 6:10 AM on Mar 23rd. As of 9:25 pm on March 22, LRock_CrazyRussian are about 40 nm from finishing the 2016 Ultimate Florida Challenge. They are moving at 4.3 kts. just NW of the shoal North of Anclote Keys.

My prediction for SOS - light winds over the next few hours will affect Alan a bit more than LRock_CrazyRussian. SOS is about 58 nm out from finishing at Ft DeSoto and moving at 2 kts as of 9:12 PM. Winds will pick-up overnight and send Alan on his way. I estimate a range of arrival for Alan between 5:30 AM and 11:50 AM on Wednesday March 23rd with an estimated arrival target time of 7:45 AM. This is a bit agressive, but let's see how this unfolds.

Posted 6 years ago #
naturecalls
Member

They are very close, what a prediction .congrats team

Posted 6 years ago #
SnoreBringGator
Member

I don't see LR/CR on tracker. Are they finished? If so congrats.

SOS- kudos for finishing so close to a team. Well done.

Posted 6 years ago #
Scareman
Member

6:53 AM Finish for LRock_CrazyRussian.

Results page has their duration posted as 17 Days, 23 Hours, 56 Min.

Posted 6 years ago #
Scareman
Member

My new estiamte for SOS's arrival on Wednesday March 23rd at 9 AM is the following:

SOS was 40 nm out about 7 AM near Anclote Keys. At 8:30 AM, Alan was approaching Honeymoon Island at 5.6 kts and is about 31 nm out. My target arrival time for SOS is 3:45 PM with a range of 2:30 PM to 6 PM

Posted 6 years ago #
lugnut
Member

Congrats and well done LRock and CrazyRussian. And keep going SOS, you're going to have an impressive finish!

Posted 6 years ago #
OneWayFish
Member

Congrat's to CrazyRussian and LRock! I was amazed watching the speeds maintened by you two yesterday as you swung WAY offshore to rhumb-line the last leg. I can't fathom doing that after 17 days on the water.

And SOS, incredible solo effort! I've been rooting for you even since I saw the build underway. I knew that machine was up to the task and you clearly were as well.

And to top it all off, this looks like the new best time fot the UF, knocking over a day and a half off sharkchow's 2006 record.

Way to go!

Posted 6 years ago #
PaddleDancer
Member

SOS is moseying south toward the finish, BustedRudder and doooobrd are on the Suwannee, Jarhead has started the portage and MicroTom is closing in on St. George. UFCers are gettin' it done!!

Posted 6 years ago #
Scareman
Member

Here are some of the predictions for Alan arriving at the finish from the facebook page:

John Bell My guess is between 230 and 430 pm Reply · 9 hrs

Brad Lockhart He was 40 nm out about 7 AM near Anclote Keys. Now Alan is approaching Honeymoon Island at 5.6 kts and is about 31 nm out. My target arrival time for SOS is 3:45 PM with a range of 2:30 PM to 6 PM Reply · 8 hrs

John Bell Still 20 miles out at 1221 pm. Looks to be heading for the beach, either that or the wind has gone SE and he's starting to tack. Last report at Clearwater Beach had winds ESE (120T) at 7-8 knots. ETA probably closer to 530-600 pm· Reply · 5 hrs

Brad Lockhart As of 3:12 PM SOS is about 11.5 nm away from the finish off Madeira Beach. traveling at 4.3 kts. I am modeling SOS to arrive between 5:35 PM and 6:10 PM, with a target arrival time of 5:51 PM. · Reply · 2 hrs

John Bell Is there a pool I don't know about? Reply · 2 hrs

Paula Martel Ha! No. I thought about it but, alas, no.· Reply · 2 hrs

Brad Lockhart At 5:42 PM, Alan was about 1.7 nm out from the finish just about to round Shell Key and enter Bunces Pass with a tail wind about 6 mph, Alan may be arriving about 6:10 PM.

Well Done Alan Stewart.

Posted 6 years ago #
MisterMoon
Member

MicroTom is almost to the St. Mary's take out. Should be there within the hour. Hope he gets a good fried chicken dinner and good night's sleep after yesterday's epic paddle all the way to Trader's Hill from Ft. Clinch.

Posted 6 years ago #
PaddleDancer
Member

Chief, Mrs. Chief and I are at Cedar Key waiting for BustedRudder, who rested in Fanning Springs with SparkleRocket last night. doooobrd is also on the move from White Springs. Jarhead and MicroTom have left Fargo hopefully after a good rest. Not nice weather here today but our Challengers are prepared and moving forward. Will send pics when we see them. Thanks for the great support, everyone.

Posted 6 years ago #
PaddleDancer
Member

A great group of family and WaterTribers met BustedRudder when he finished his Ultimate Florida Challenge at 3:22pm yesterday. He looked great despite finishing under pesky windy, boat wake conditions. Congratulations, Bob!

I'm off to Cedar Key to meet up with with Chief and MrsChief to welcome doooobrd, Jarhead and MicroTom over the next two days.

Posted 6 years ago #
LRock
Member

Great job Busted Rudder!! Way to paddle hard and straight!.

I am jealous of those still on the course, enjoy every moment of the real real world.

Posted 6 years ago #
MisterMoon
Member

Monday night update- MT and Jarhead in Fowler's Bluff having enjoyed a big meal and a hotel room where they will undoubtably be drying all their stuff after getting soaked in the rain last night.

Dooobrd in Cedar Key.

Weather for Tuesday and Wednesday is generally favorable for our guys, with winds generally out of the northern part of the compass and light to moderate. Winds build and get gusty starting Wednesday night and then start shifting east and ultimately south @10-12 knots for Thursday and Friday. This won't be terrible sailing for Jarhead, but Microtom may have a bit of work ahead of him before the finish.

Not having talked to any of them, any guess I make at when they might finish is just a guess but here goes anyway.

I see Doooobrd spending at least one more night out there finishing late Wednesday.

Jarhead and MT will get to Cedar Key early afternoon on Tuesday.

Jarhead will have to take some time to switch back to Moon Shadow and Tom will make a quick stop and go on. There aren't many places to stop between Cedar Key and Anclote Key, so my guess is he'll wind up spending a night on one of the spoil islands at the power plant channel roughly 18 miles to the south.

Jarhead will likely sail well after dark tomorrow before anchoring up somewhere between the power plant and Anclote. Jarhead finishes Wednesday evening I think.

MT finishes sometime Thursday and thus endeth the 2016 Ultimate Florida. And I will have to find something else to look at first thing in the morning and last thing at night. I'll also miss MT's excellent video diaries from the course.

Posted 6 years ago #
Mishigama
Member

I believe that Jarhead's trip ends at Cedar Key. He has already completed the leg from Cedar Key to Ft. DeSoto.

Posted 6 years ago #
Mishigama
Member

Jarhead's Track - finished this afternoon March 29th at 3:21PM.

Posted 6 years ago #
Scareman
Member

Wednesday 8 AM Mar 30, 2016 Update.

The final three UF challengers are almost done.

Winds over the next few days are building to 10 mph sustained from SW clocking to SE to E over the next few days. Gusts will approach 25 mph Wed night through Thursday at noon. Then 10 mph headwinds to quartering winds from 10 mph to 19 mph gusts through until winds gust over 20 mph Friday.

Doooobrd is only 39 nm out from finishing at the Ft DeSoto boat ramp. He appears to be be anchored off of North Keys inside Anclote Key. The winds will subside form heavy gusts around noon today. Assuming Doooobrd waits for less challenging winds, then a 1 PM start for the final push could have him arriving after 15 hours of travel from his last anchorage averaging about 2.5 kts into these winds. So Doooobrd could arrive as early as midnight Wed night Mar 30th if leaving by 9 AM today, or maybe targeting a 3 AM arrival with a noon to 1 PM departure. So Doooobrd could arrive at he finish with my estimates between midnight tonight through Thursday night (because winds pick-up Thursday early AM).

MicroTom has been moving away fromCedar KEy this morning and is following the coastline in Waccasassa Bay. MicroTom is about 130 nm out from the finish of the UF. I estimate Tom will stop and camp possibly twice and expect him to average about 2.7 kts into these winds for the next two to three days. I estimate Tom still has 48 hours pf paddling left to finish. With the wind forecast for gusting and the distance an non-friendly coast during this part of the course, I estimate Tom's arrival into the UF finish between Saturday 3 AM and Sunday 6 PM. I will target MictoTom's arrival into the finish of the UF at Saturday April 2nd at 10 PM.

Jarhead is still at Cedar Key, but should make good time in these winds. Jarhead is about 108 nm out from finishing the UF. Assuming Bill can average 6.5 kts in these winds and leave Cedar Key by 9 AM today Wed Mar 30th, I estimate he will be traveling possibly as short as 16.5 hrs, but could be as much as 29 hours if the winds require tacking and slow his speed to 4.5 kts. So Jarhead could arrive between 1 AM Thursday Marc 31st, to 6 PM on Thursday Mar 31st. Tides in Cedar Key are falling from a mid-high tide from 7:30 AM through 12:30 PM. Maybe Bill will catch the tide now and get underway.

Posted 6 years ago #
Scareman
Member

Update on the 1,200 mile WaterTribe's Utlimate Florida Challenge: 2:30 PM Wed Mar 30, 2016:

Doooobrd is about 16 nm out from the finish at 2:30 PM. He made over 4 kts with an early departure this morning before 9 AM. New estimated arrival window if he continues between 7:30 PM and 11 PM tonight.

MicroTom has passed the mouth of Crystal River and is making progress towards the finish of this 1,200 event.

Posted 6 years ago #
Scareman
Member

At 5:30 PM, Dooobrd is about 7.5 nm to 8.5 nm out from the finish and moving just under 2 kts. The route will determine the mileage into the finish.

MicroTom has taken shelter from the Gulf and is now inside on the Salt River between Greenleaf Bay and Game Creek Bay.

Posted 6 years ago #
Scareman
Member

Doooobrd finished!!! Doooobrd Finished!!!

25 Days, 13 Hours, 46 Min = Wednesday March 30th at 8:46 PM, or 20:46

Posted 6 years ago #
LRock
Member

Way to go DOOOOBRD!! Fantastic work!! Now arms and legs to ressssst.

Posted 6 years ago #
Jarhead
Member

Yes, kudos to Dooobrd! His boat is fantastic and he did a masterful job. Usually Moon Shadow fares will against class 4s in light air, but he caught me from way back and blew my doors off when the wind went light. No way I can row anywhere near the Mirage drive standards. And how he got his boat through the debris and fallen trees on the upper St Marys is a wonder. I think his achievement is very near Wizard's incredible performances in his own designs, not in time I guess but in imagination and execution. Hats off to Dooobrd without a doubt. Great effort and great boat.

Posted 6 years ago #
Scareman
Member

Scareman's Ultimate Florida Challenge Update - Thursday 10 PM Update on March 31, 2016

Woohoo! MicroTom has been moving after 8PM today.

Tom is moving South in the Gulf about 56 nms out from the finish and moving at 3.4 kts past Hernando Beach off Aripeka.

Tom is about 15 nm out from Anclote Key, 30 miles from Clearwater Beach, and 56 nm from the finish of the 1,200 mile Ultimate Florida Challenge. The deadling to finish the UF is Sunday April 3rd at 12 Noon.

Winds will only be pleasant up to about 5 AM per the Aripeka Sailflow forecast. Paddle like hell Tom Dyll, then pop the sail and hold on because the wind will be building from now to eternity!!!

His video posts from today detail his aborted start due to the skinny water leaving the Homosasa area on the Florida Saltwater Paddling Trail's inside route. Then he aborted heading to Anclote Key due to the conditions and camped at Coon Key for a brief rest before planning an 8 PM departure to make progress in less unfavorable conditions (notice I avoided favorable winds).

Please check out MicroTom's page with excellent video posts from his adventure at:

https://www.facebook.com/MicroTom-2016-Ultimate-Florida-Challenge-1333007946725339/?fref=nf

Posted 6 years ago #
Scareman
Member

At 11 AM on Friday April 1st, MicroTom is approaching Palm Harbor moving at 3 kts and is about 31 nm out from the finish of the UF. Headwinds will be challenging and rarely dip below 15 mph gusts for the next few days.

Posted 6 years ago #
Scareman
Member

This is the last nightly update for the 2016 Ultimate Florida Challenge on Friday April 1st.

MicroTom has camped 11 nm out from the finish of his 1,200 mile journey and plans to arrive at the Ft DeSoto boat ramp between 11 AM and 1 PM Saturday April 2nd.

Tom appears to be camping on an island South of Bay Pines and the War Veterans Memorial Park in Boca Ciega Bay.

Finish strong Tom Dyll!

Posted 6 years ago #
Scareman
Member

This is Scareman's last update for the conclusion of the 2016 1,200 mile Ultimate Florida Challenge that started Saturday March 5th (or for Jarhead it was an earlier start for the 1,600 mile coastal challenge including the entire Fl Coast).

At 8 AM on Saturday April 2nd, MicroTom is only about 6 nm out from the finish barely making 2 kts in these winds with weather threatening later today.

MicroTom is on target for an arrival window from 10:30 AM to 12:30 PM arrival into the finish of the 2016 1,200 mile Ultimate Florida Challenge.

Winds are not friendly and should be on his nose creating quite a chop with any fetch of water more than 100 yards long. Tom's route into the finish can go outside to the West or inside to the East, or cut across some flats with a mid-high tide later this morning through noon.

Please congratulate Tom for me. I will be coaching two lacrosse games in 50 mph winds as he finishes.

Posted 6 years ago #
MicroTom
Key Master

Really fun reading the updates. Thank you for everyone's input. Especially Scareman. I had a great trip. Memories for a lifetime . Proud to be a WaterTriber.

Posted 6 years ago #
BeastOarman
Member

Congratulations Tom, Jarhead and all the others! Words cannot express the admiration of accomplishments we know only a taste of. Well done.

Posted 6 years ago #
BeaV
Member

Just want to echo BeastOarman's congratulations to LRock & CrazyRussian, SOS, BustedRudder, Doooobird, Jarhead, and MicroTom. Awesome job of completing the loop!

Posted 6 years ago #
doooobrd
Member

Thanks BeaV. Judging from your quick work of the Choko to Key Largo segment, you wouldn't have difficulty with a UFC. Thanks again for driving me to grocery store and helping with the food selection. The Pop Tarts and Muscle Milk really hit the spot, while they lasted. Unfortunately I had a bad habit of eating all the stuff I liked first. Did you know Pop Tarts melt in the rain? Gotta eat those rascals fast.

Posted 6 years ago #