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1. 

   Macatawa
   Member

   With 1 month to go is anyone else looking at the long range forecasts?

   It is always interesting to see how the forcasts change over time 

   Posted 1 year ago #
2. 

   mistermoon
   Member

   Any links you willing to share?

   I don't usually start looking until about a week before a big trip. As you point out, the forecasts for 5-7 days out change frequently, about every 4 hours as NOAA and their meterologists update their data. What's funny to see sometimes is what happens after a shift change and a new person starts doing the analysis. They don't always agree with the previous forecaster's opinon. This is why I tend to focus on the progression of the forecast discussions as we lead up to an event so I can see how the analysis trend is moving.

   Posted 1 year ago #
3. 

   Jarhead
   Member

   For about three years now I have used a site that provides a 15-day forecast as the EC and NCC approached. The far-out forecasts have been very wrong every time. It's kind of fun to start looking and thinking, but you're just as well off to wait until the week of the challenge before focusing on an expected condition.

   Posted 1 year ago #
4. 

   Sirtackalot
   Member

   Theres a 90% chance that will be a 10-20% chance of rain with wind , or not.......ha.

   Somewhere I read that March in Fl has a 63% of Force 4 winds. Otherwise its a crap shoot.

   Posted 1 year ago #
5. 

   KiwiBird
   Member

   Only profession you can be wrong for over 50%+ of the time, and still keep your job

   As a kayaker I find that there's little we can do if there is wind etc, coming from the wrong direction: you just have to keep paddling!

   KB

   Posted 1 year ago #
6. 

   MicroTom
   Key Master

   Not looking yet. I will get curious about 2 weeks out. One week out I will start planning around the forecasts. The Thursday before the race I will make some final decisons. As long as temps stay above 50 I will be happy. Low temps above 45 will be tollerable. Below that and it will be a real adventure. And ofcourse hopefully it will be another dry trip. Please no rain especially cold rain.......

   Posted 1 year ago #
7. 

   Sirtackalot
   Member

   NE winds at 10-15 backing around to westerlys when I hit Fl Bay.......Please! :)

   Posted 1 year ago #
8. 

   DonKeyHoTey
   Member

   Look at the "bright" side, Tom. Cold rain = cold front = north wind (and rain) = at our backs = quick trip -- with a STRONG incentive to finish ASAP.  As they say back in the old country (land of the midnight sun that you rarely see LOL), "there's no such thing as bad weather -- just bad clothing". 

   Though if I get to pick the weather, I'm definitely with you and Sirtackalot. 

   Posted 1 year ago #
9. 

   mistermoon
   Member

   Paraphrasing Mark Twain: The only thing we can be sure of is there will be weather, and plenty of it!

   Posted 1 year ago #
10. 

    Sirtackalot
    Member

    Theres a old saying for sailors, " Gentlemen don't sail to weather". Down wind or a reach all the way would be perfect.

    Posted 1 year ago #
11. 

    Macatawa
    Member

    Now 4 weeks... 

    I do agree with everyone above that before about 1 or 2 days ahead, it's just guessing... but even so, it's fun :)

    It's a beautiful sunny 39 degree day here in Holland, MI today... balmy!

     - Macatawa

    Posted 1 year ago #
12. 

    bosab
    Member

    We are having very warm temps for Tampa this winter.   I am running AC during the day.    Normally we are enjoying 60s and its been 80s.   Maybe a cold front will be in order for the event weekend.

    Posted 1 year ago #
13. 

    Macatawa
    Member

    Farmer's Almanac:

    MARCH 2012: temperature 68.5° (3.5° above avg. north, 0.5° below south); precipitation 1" (2" below avg.); Mar 1-8: Sunny, very warm; Mar 9-13: T-storms, then sunny, cool; Mar 14-19: Showers, then sunny, warm; Mar 20-24: T-storms, seasonable; Mar 25-31: Sunny, warm.

    Posted 1 year ago #
14. 

    backwaterbob
    Member

    Passage weather has been a favorite of mine for a few years now, usually goes out to ten days. http://www.passageweather.com/   

    Posted 1 year ago #

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