Doc,
Everyone has their methods and madness, but I recommend that you also look at tidal CURRENTS and not just tides. Tidal current (movement of water) and tides (depth of water) are not sychronized as closely as you might assume in this area.
I look heavily at wind and the current to make my decision to go outside (would I get a fast current boost to help take me outside, or will I be fighting a current). Some paddlers even include sea breezes in their decision ( http://kiteboardingstpetersburg.com/sea-breezes/ ). If you do have a favorable current to take you outside, then will you be be exposed to strong winds and wind fetch, or be protected, or have a following sea? (etc, etc).
Homeport will show you visually what the tidal current direction is (set the date/time), and if there is a current station nearby. There are several current stations in the area of the start, but sadly, not for the entire course.
If you are "social" and want the back and forth of competition, you might enjoy going inside, because that is where most paddlers will be. You avoid the possiblity of having to make surf landings to take a break. That said, inside, while more "protected", can be also a mess in strong, gusty winds; sometimes it's calmer outside than inside depending on wind direction. The large boats thundering down the ICW right next to you can swamp you or worse; almost everyone has a story of almost being hit by a careless boater. You may get a "turbo boost" as you pass some inlets in the ICW and fight the current in others. It's give and take. The Venice canal "ditch" is visually my least favorite area inside, although Pauline, my partner, runs the path along the bank, cheering me on, which makes it more tolerable :) I'm often fighting the current in the Venice canal, but it has never been particulary strong.
Going outside you may not see anyone at all except the odd sailboat, until you come back inside near Venice or Stump pass. The inlets can be tricky and often require solid bracing skills or even a roll -- again it just depends on the conditions. Originally I was tempted to go outside because I wanted to surf down the coast, dreaming of linking one long surfing run to the next. That said, rarely have I seen the conditions line up for good kayak surfing. It certainly can happen, but normally it's just windy with short period waves (lumpy), but it all depends on the conditions on race day!
If you do go outside and prevail, then you will be hailed as a paddling genius and you should be mysterious and vague when asked about your decisions. If you go outside and have a long, slow, slog, everyone will ask "why the hell did you do that"? ;^)
The great thing about this course is that it is never the same from one day to the next.
Greg
