Talking About Adventure In Small Boats
Sirtackalot
Member
The kayakers will love this.......the link gives extended forecasts. Forecast for set up day, 3.2.12 is 3 MPH from the East. Hope this is NOT correct.........ha ( or at least fills in for the 3rd.)
http://www.myforecast.com/bin/expanded_forecast_15day.m?city=13445&metric=false
That link now says ENE at 12 mph at 13:35 today. How quickly the forcast changes!
JollyRoger
I hate to be a web blanket, but the forecast shows NNE, ENE, NNE, and ENE winds for the four days prior to March 3, so the likelyhood it'll veer into the East on Saturday is very high. Yuck!
SW means 225 degrees, and until we get to East Cape our general heading will be 150 degrees, 75 off the wind. Doesn't sound bad to me; what am I missing?
Now at 4:30 am....first forcast for the actual start day march 3rd on the link above now shows SE at 12 mph... Right on the nose.
JollyRoger
Ridgerunner
Member
Let's just start a week early. It's started showing in Tennessee and I want to get South. The long range forecast for Sarasota (we'll be passing there Saturday and leaving St. Pete, so it may be a better indicator) shows 1 mph winds Saturday, the 3rd.
http://www.myforecast.com/bin/expanded_forecast_15day.m?city=13454&metric=false
mistermoon
Member
Macatwa, what site was that?
Looking at the other sites just proves if you don't like the weather, wait a few minutes. Two days ago they were predicting winds on the nose for Saturday, today they are predicting northerlies! While it's all fun to look at right now, I'm not going really start worrying about what the forecast says until Friday before the start.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/sarasota-fl/34236/daily-weather-forecast/328166?day=13
...so it must be accurate 
Indidentally, today it shows the wind for Saturday, Sunday and Monday to be due south...
Ridgerunner
Member
At the same time, this extended forcast for Sarasots (mid day Sat position for much of the fleet) shows 14 mph N winds Sat and ENE winds Sun. Those guys aren't accurate till a day or two out.
http://www.myforecast.com/bin/expanded_forecast_15day.m?city=13454&metric=false
MicroTom
Key Master
Still impossible to tell what the wind is going to do but the temps are looking decent.
mistermoon
Member
Watching the forecasts for Saturday and Sunday are like riding a roller coaster. Every few hours they change from something you don't want to something else you don't want. A few hours ago they had Saturday with 7 knot SE winds and Sunday blowing NW @ 2 kts. A few hours later and the same site says Saturday WSW @17, Sunday N@25kt.
My current plan is to sail in the weather we have...
If you really want to geek out like me, go to http://wxug.us/kkno and play with various models. Note: you do have to select the GFS model and winds.
Sirtackalot
Member
I agree it changes every few hours, but a week ago I wrote down what they were guessing for this Sat, the 25th. The week out forecast was for 20 NE, all the local weather stations, weather.com etc is still sticking with that. So I think in the next few days it will start to lock in. The 3rd forecast this AM it was 19 NW, then Sunday and Monday 12 NE. We can only hope........
Roy
mistermoon
Member
All the weather sites are looking at the same GFS model for the forecast. It's run a couple of times per day and some sites update pretty soon after each model run and others don't. That's why I like looking at the model itself, which I linked to in my message above. The winds reported by the GFS model are 10m winds, that is the velocity at 10m above ground (sea) level. Not many of us have rigs that tall, so remember sea level winds will be somewhat less owing to surface friction.
Of course this forecast won't hold with regard to timing of what wind we get and when we get it. But if it does stay NW 20+, I'd head down Sarasota Bay on Saturday morning instead of heading out Anna Maria with the idea that if it velocity moderates and the direction goes on the E side of N, that I might consider going into the Gulf at the nearest pass. But if it the velocity stays up, I'm content to remain a big chicken and stay in the ICW all the way to Placida.
The latest GFS model run shows a strong front coming through sometime Saturday morning. It's a big if, but if the fast Class 5 boats can hook onto it we could see Lumpy's 26 hour record under pressure.
But I'd really rather be in the Gulf, so here's hoping the weather works in my favor.
MicroTom
Key Master
From the extended forecast at myforecast.com.
St. Petersburg - 3/3
Mostly sunny. Mild. 77°F 55°F 19 mph / NW
Placida - 3/3
Showers early. More sun than clouds. Warm. 82°F 54°F 20 mph / NW
Sanibel - 3/4
More sun than clouds. Mild. 81°F 58°F 15 mph / ENE
Marco Island & Choko - 3/4
More sun than clouds. Mild. 82°F 59°F 19 mph / E
Key Largo - 4/4
Sunny. Mild. 82°F 69°F 21 mph / E
Exciting to think about!
mistermoon
Member
The models are showing a frontal passage on Saturday or Sunday. How it affects competitors depends on timing. The latest run has the front passing sometime in the evening hours on Saturday.
The 0600 GMT GFS model run shows the following between Ft Desoto and Sanibel:
0100 Saturday - Increasing clouds. Winds SE 6-9 knots. Temps low 60s.
1300 Saturday - Showers. Winds WNW 9-12 knots. Temps mid to high 60s.
Could be a t-storm in between 1pm Saturday and 1 am Sunday.
0100 Sunday - Showers ended, clearing. Winds NNE 18-23 knots.
1300 Sunday - Clear. Winds NE 12-18 knots.
0100 Monday - Winds ENE 15-23 knots. The further south you are, the higher winds you will see.
When the 1200 GMT model run is posted I think we'll start to see 3 hour intervals for Saturday instead of the 12 hour ones I show above.
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