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1. 

   Macatawa
   Member

   Formatting in the last thread went really weird so I'm starting over yet again.

   Small update in the long range forecast for Sarasota:

   

   Posted 4 years ago #
2. 

   Sirtackalot
   Member

   A bit of a tail wind the first night? Cool!

   Posted 4 years ago #
3. 

   MisterMoon
   Member

   Ugh. Drifty. 

   I want more wind than last year. Since I'm asking, I'll take enough for the first reef, but not so much as to tie in the second one. 

   Posted 4 years ago #
4. 

   Bermudaboy
   Member

   granting that I continue to hallucinate that I am participating in EC15, &  also knowing that forecast is way too far out and most probably inaccurate , that 7knt  directly out of S for first day really sucks, and calling someone at accuweather to adjust now...

   Posted 4 years ago #
5. 

   Macatawa
   Member

   And now from the east...

   

   Posted 4 years ago #
6. 

   Bermudaboy
   Member

   looks like that tel call worked partially, I told the guy at accuweather 14 not 8.

   Posted 4 years ago #
7. 

   PainenDias
   Blocked

   Hippie-dippy weatherman says 50% chance of rain.  Might rain, might not!  Same with wind!  Might blow, might not.  Climate is what they advertise, weather is what we get!  NOAA knows!  Except when they don't! Is the tide in?  Or out?  Don't know until we get there.  Don't complicate my life, I got oars!  But I ain't gonna row very far unless it is a channel in Florida Bay.  No wind, no worry.  I can rest then!  Just get my fat butt off the beach when the bagpipes start and let's head south.  I am a WaterTriber!

   Posted 4 years ago #
8. 

   Coastie
   Member

   Well said PainenDias! Most accurate post on this thread! Historical trends and long term predictions are interesting, but rarely accurate. 3 or 4 days out, we may get a reasonable weather forecast....but it is still a guess....like the massive snowstorm that never happened in New York City:) I can guarantee sand on the Ft DeSoto beach and water in Tampa Bay:)

   Posted 4 years ago #
9. 

   MisterMoon
   Member

   The longer range modes I can access on the net are just now starting to give solutions for the first day of the challenge. I hope they aren't accurate, because right now they are showing a real drifter.

    

   Edit: never mind. Now they are showing something completely different. That's what happens when you look at forecasts two weeks out. Each model run gives a completely different answer.

   Posted 4 years ago #
10. 

    lugnut
    Member

    Let's hope we don't have what we had today in Tallahassee and which I assume was about what they had at DeSoto: Wind SSE to S 20 gusting to 30. Shades of 2012! It will be replaced by light SE winds tomorrow and then a not-too-strong front on Monday.

    Posted 4 years ago #
11. 

    Karank
    Member

    Weather! The predictions before during and after the EC is strangly much the same.  I usually see a front predicted during that time time frame.  The predicted day and night temp & wind & sun and clouds just vary a little.  Cold fronts sometime come early or late but no fronts seem to be in the forcast? Hmmm? Riddler would be a good Watertribe name.

    Posted 4 years ago #
12. 

    MisterMoon
    Member

    Latest GFS model run. It's still too far out to trust, but it's what I'm going to be looking at for the next week and a half. 

    This is for the start, winds SSE 9-12 kts. 

    Looking as far ahead as I can I don't see any frontal systems coming through, meaning a lot of upwind work, hard on people and boats. 

    http://wxug.us/1nghu

     

    

    Posted 4 years ago #
13. 

    Macatawa
    Member

    Today's update from Accuweather for Sarasota...

    I choose to ignore MM's post because I like mine better :)

    

    Posted 4 years ago #
14. 

    MisterMoon
    Member

    Macatawa, it hardly matters. Now the forecast shows a front coming through on Sunday with winds clocking from the SSE to NW to NE and finally E. Stronger winds too, 15-18 kts. I'll take it. 

    Posted 4 years ago #
15. 

    Macatawa
    Member

    I know, I know... just having fun 

    Posted 4 years ago #
16. 

    MisterMoon
    Member

    Me too. I might start worrying about it this time next week.

     

     

     

    Ok, 'might' is too weak. I will start worrying about it this time next week. 

     

     

     

    Maybe sooner....

    Posted 4 years ago #
17. 

    Ridgerunner
    Member

    Worrying might not be the best word.  Just like thinking about the pros and cons of inside or outside and which inlet/route to use, thinking of tactics for each different kind of weather is part of the fun of an EC.

    Getting ready is half the fun.  Now, if it is going to be light winds on the nose for the first two days, maybe I should switch to class 3 and go inside ;-)

    Posted 4 years ago #
18. 

    Tyro
    Member

    Paddlecarver and I out today going south very lite SW wind we were moving at 1.9. I guess we'll be doing a lot of paddling if these forcasts hold up. Yuk!

    Posted 4 years ago #
19. 

    MisterMoon
    Member

    Worry is a bit too strong a word.

    One thing I've learned from my challenges is you always have to be working on Plan A, plan B, plan C, etc. And then there are the sub-plans. I'm constantly visualizing everything, so much so that's what I'm dreaming about at nights these days. 

    I've got plans for what I'd do in particular conditions, but I'd sure like to be able to narrow it down as much as possible. At least that way my rather random dreams might get a little more focused!

    Posted 4 years ago #
20. 

    Sirtackalot
    Member

    Latest is showing a nice North wind for the first few days and then a SE from Monday on. The saving grace is we know it will change again before the race :) 

    Posted 4 years ago #
21. 

    MisterMoon
    Member

    If we could lock this one in, I'd be OK with that. 

    Posted 4 years ago #
22. 

    WoodCutter
    Member

    For us in the frozen north and most of country except Florida it appears, what about a weather thread as to how we are supposed to get there if this continues?  I know Oklahoma and Lousiana and Mississippi, Alabama doen't have sand, salt or snow plows! Doubt Texas and Arkansas does? I am looking at a lot of snow out the window and frozen drain pipes already!

     

    Jackie Monies/StoryTeller

    Posted 4 years ago #
23. 

    MisterMoon
    Member

    Snowed in ATL this morning, expecting more on tomorrow night. I'll be in Philly tomorrow night, so I don't care. It will all be melted by Thursday evening however. 

    Posted 4 years ago #
24. 

    Macatawa
    Member

    GFS model now showing NNE for the start, eventually shifting to E by Monday / Tuesday.

    

    Posted 4 years ago #
25. 

    Sirtackalot
    Member

    I believe the GFS model more than Accuweather. At this point Accuweather is showing about the same wind conditions. Northerlys for the first few days and then easterlys from Monday on thru the balance of the week. Also, cool to start and warm to finish....

    Posted 4 years ago #
26. 

    BustedRudder
    Member

    Dream on. If the wind is on your back you are going the wrong way:)

    Posted 4 years ago #
27. 

    MisterMoon
    Member

    I'm pretty sure all Accuweather is doing this far out is giving a point forecast based on the GFS model. This is also what you get from sites and apps like Sailflow and Windalert, although they may use the Euro model for the stuff out to 36 hours. Supposedly the Euro model (ECMWF model on the Wunderground site) is better for short range stuff. 

    I prefer to look at the acutual gribs from the model outputs than a single point becuase as you toggle through different times you can see frontal passages and the effect on on wind strength and direction. Even if none of it comes to pass you can see the trends you can expect when a particular weather system is prevalent. 

    One thing these models don't show is sea breeze. Puma said in another thread that water temps were a bit cooler this year and that may lead to the sea breeze caused by rising warm air over land filling in earlier and stronger than is typical. Whether or not we see a stronger and earlier influenct this year, you should still consider the effect, both velocity and direction, of the sea breeze building in the afternoon and decreasing after the sun sets. 

    Posted 4 years ago #
28. 

    MicroTom
    Key Master

    10 day forecast is now showing in my iPhone Windfinder app. Looking good so far.

    

    Posted 4 years ago #
29. 

    MicroTom
    Key Master

    The right direction but that's a lot of wind.

    

    Posted 4 years ago #
30. 

    MisterMoon
    Member

    MicroTom: in some ways having a heavier northerly forecast makes decision/making a lot easier. I ain't so proud as to eschew the ICW. Or at the very least, just plan to come in at Venice. 

    Posted 4 years ago #

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