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Adverse Weather Planning

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Started 5 years ago by KnotSynced
Latest reply from BeastOarman

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KnotSynced
Member

We hijacked the dry suit thread and went into discussions of hypothermia and adverse weather. I am starting a new thread. Please feel free to share your thoughts and plans for dealing with adverse weather. I will post my plan below. If you know of good bug out spots along the way, please share. If you have a good strategy for dealing with cold, thunderstorms, high winds fog or other adverse weather, please share that as well.

In the past I have routed outside from Choco to Flamingo. I am doing the wilderness waterway this year and it is new territory. I am especially interested in knowledge of these waters and strategies for dealing with weather and other dangers in the Everglades.

Here is my plan for adverse weather:

Tampa Bay: Wait at the start for the calmest conditions if possible. I have 16 hours to spare between the start and cp1. I would like to use some of this sleeping, but I am not crossing Tampa Bay in sloppy weather and I will forego sleeping and pull a superhuman paddle if needed. Kayak Vagabond can make this distance in 12 hours. That means it will probably take me 20.

Charlotte Harbor: Choose the least sloppy shoreline. I want a close windward shore to reduce fetch if possible. If the forecast and conditions are really bad, I use the same tactics as Tampa Bay. Sit and wait it out.

Intercoastal waterway and run from Ft. Meyers to Marco Island. If the forecast is bad, paddle as long as I can and find a hotel with a nice tiki bar.

Marco Island to Choco: There is a sandy beach within 3 miles until one commits to Indian Key Pass. If storms are moving in, I will sit it out on an island. Lightning is an issue, but there is nothing I can do about it and I probably won't know it happened.

Choco to Flamingo: It is sheltered and should not be as bad for sea conditions. If there are bad storms, I will try not to be on the bays when the storms hit. I would rather be in a narrow channel. If possible, I will be at a campsite. If it gets wicked cold, I will find a campsite and wait it out.

Flamingo to Key Largo: This is a short hop and can be done in half a day. Hopefully I will have about 4 days to play with for this leg of the trip. Most of islands here are mangrove and nearly impossible to land on. I will wait out any sloppy weather forecast at Flamingo and hope that it passes in time for me to paddle on to Key Largo. Google Earth and prior watertribe forum posts indicate a few places to land and I have them marked on my map. Aleutian and I saw a waterspout on this section of the EC back in 2014. My contingency plan for that is paddle like a mad man and hope for the best.

Posted 5 years ago #
Fatfrank
Member

If it is not hot, then I like a base layar that is warm when wet. Smart wool is expensive and worth it. A storm cag can be a life saver, if it is not warm, I put it on whenever I stop to keep from cooling off too fast and whenever I feel cold while I'm still paddling. A Cag works fine in sit on top or surfski too.

Posted 5 years ago #
SaltySack
Member

If your inclined to share camps spots along the inside route I'm all ears..

Posted 5 years ago #
JoeWildlife
Member

good plan Knot.

I would add: Go to the inside of Pine Island on the Charlotte Harbor crossing if it is of benefit. I see a lot of class 1-2 folks use the inside.

If you are doing the wilderness waterway, you might want to avoid the majority of whitewater bay by going the southern route in the Joe river. If you come in on the Shark River, you will be using the Joe river anyway. In '13 it was clear I didn't want to do the whitewater and I proceeded to the Joe, and it was perfect. It got real wild when I left the sheltered Joe heading into the SE corner of whitewater bay. I'll never forget that wild ride.

Joe

Posted 5 years ago #
KnotSynced
Member

Joe,

At charlotte harbor my detailed plan depends on weather. If the wind is from the east, i will run just inside the barrier islands. If it is from the west, i will cut through turtle bay and run inside pine island. From the south I also run inside pine island. If the wind is from the north, I havent got a plan I am happy with. My boat doesnt behave well in a following sea. It is like riding on top of a red and white round plastic fishing bobber.

I may sit out a north wind over 10 knots.

Any suggestions?

Posted 5 years ago #
BustedRudder
Member

Unless influenced by frontal passages conditions typically build during the day peaking mid afternoon and moderate at night. Waiting for better weather at the start means going later that night or next day. If the wind is on your nose for a crossing you get the worst of it right away and bailing on the crossing is doable. Crossings on a tailwind get worse and worse and you are committed to see it out with knees knocking.

Posted 5 years ago #
KnotSynced
Member

Salty,

I plan to sleep at cp1, wiggins pass and choco. After choco, it depends on my permit. I will rest or sleep at flamingo before heading to largo.

This is the perfect weather plan. If the weather doesnt cooperate, I may book a hotel room between Tampa and Marco Island.

The plan gets fuzzy after Marco Island. There are numerous sandy beaches along the coast from Marco to Indian Pass. These are in play for some sleep if the tide or weather is not cooperative.

After Choco, I have no set plan other than wilderness waterway campsites and staying in narrow waterways if the wind gets really bad.

Knotsynced.

Posted 5 years ago #
KnotSynced
Member

Busted Rudder,

In Florida, are the north winds usually generated by fronts or do they happen without frontal influence?

Knotsynced

Posted 5 years ago #
BeastOarman
Member

I have run inside Estero and done the ICW all the way to Wiggins when it was rough. Nice waterside bar for a quick burger at the west end of the bridge between Estero and San Carlos.

KnotSynced, do you use a rudder? I would think that should help with following seas. But I know some are purists. Alternatively, if you outrun the waves they are not really following ; )

I second JoeWildlife's 2 points, I have used both those options with gratitude. Even with winds, I found the other bays along the WW were not an issue (other than hard work). And BustedRudder is absolutely right about wind direction & commitment to the crossing - goes for any large crossing. But it would be mentally very difficult to hold at the beach on Saturday. Also stay on the West side of Sarasota Bay if you want options for shelter/landing/rest, I wound up on the East side in the south winds of 2012 and met mostly with seawall, not fun. Of course unless it is an east wind.

Other advice for bad weather is, make hay while the sun shines. We pulled an all night paddle in 2014 outside Choko to Shark River, knowing weather was on its way. Others camped along that route and got socked in. We were already in Joe River by the time weather turned, and although slow going against strong winds, it was safe.

Barring weather, I would encourage you to shoot for CP1 day one. You will be strong still, and many others will be doing it which boosts morale - even if you arrive at 3 AM, it is good to get that under your belt.

Posted 5 years ago #
BustedRudder
Member

KnotSynced, Prevailing winds, cold fronts and positions of low and high pressure systems influence wind direction.

In FL, winter prevailing winds are northerly. In SE FL the gulfstream modifies that to more easterly hence you are always fighting it to Key largo. An advancing cold front will bring rain and thunderstorms followed by clear and colder with NW winds. Then the position of H & L systems.

If you know you are under the influence of a H or L system, based on the wind direction at your position you can know where the system is and as the wind changes direction the direction the system is moving. A great way to pass time while paddling.

On top of all that is local variables. coastal areas seem to have their fair share of local variables.

Posted 5 years ago #
KnotSynced
Member

I have a rudder and never use it. Habit from my last boat that never needed the rudder.

I will give it a try next time i am in those conditions. Have to remember to remove the safety strap before I start paddling. I cant reach it from the cockpit. Boat is 19 feet long. On my prior boats i could reach the safety strap and disengage it with the paddle.

Posted 5 years ago #
JoeWildlife
Member

BustedRudder just described the Tampa Bay and Sarasota crossings in '13. Tailwind made it wilder and wilder but you were fully committed by the time it got rough!

KnotSynced, your description of feeling you were in a red and white fishing bobber...that is exactly how I described my Whitewater Bay experience to Sharkchow in an interview leaving Flamingo. My boat is red and white, too!

My '13 "schedule" was similar to what you are thinking. I stayed at CP1, Wiggins, Panther Key (still a ways from Choco), blew through the Everglades overnight, Flamingo, finish. This year I hope to make it past CP1 to Picnic Key or thereabouts to get an earlier start across Charlotte Harbor and an earlier arrival at Wiggins...and the following night closer to Choco (or even at Choco). I probably have at least one all-nighter in me, so I may skip a night of sleep foregoing stopping at Choco or the everglades . The best laid battle plans rarely survive contact with the enemy!!

Joe

Posted 5 years ago #
KnotSynced
Member

Busted Rudder,
I was really hoping you were going to say North winds are the exception to the rule. I hate following seas.
How bad were the seas in 13? How about 15 when numerous people got into trouble? What wind strength caused this?

Posted 5 years ago #
MisterMoon
Member

Crossing TB in 2015 we had a cross sea, NW winds 15-18 against an incoming tide. Waves 2 feet with occaisional 3-4 footers, short and steep. Fun in a sailboat. Probably not all that much fun in a kayak for a paddler like me.

Posted 5 years ago #
JoeWildlife
Member

KnotSynced,

get that rudder in the water! In '13 I remember leaving the beach with a gentle breeze and the waves gently lapping the shore. I had my 1M sail down by the end of the crossing, or shortly into Sarasota Bay. Danito broke an ama on his Kruger/Balogh rig. I remember sliding down the waves and watching the bow bury in, in front of me, and happily watching it rise again. It wasn't bad enough to pitch pole anyone, but there was a lot of surfing going on and I saw the sterns of a kayak or two totally out of the water while the bow was under water. I dunno, 3-5' following seas? It was probably a 15mph NE wind that day. I helped rescue a guy who flipped his kayak using a PAS sail rig. When he went screaming past me with his sail up, I thought "that guy has balls", only to catch up to him shortly thereafter in the water. Puma sank in Sarasota Bay and there was a rescue response. I wasn't there in '15 so can't comment on that.

Posted 5 years ago #
lugnut
Member

KS: Out of 12 EC starts I've been in or seen, four had moderate to strong northerlies at the start: 2007, 2010, 2013, and 2015. 2006 and 2008 had light to moderate northwesterlies and it picked up both times in the afternoon. In 2010, it was strong enough that crossing Tampa Bay was somewhat lumpy, but the winds went light in the late morning and Sarasota was a piece of cake. Wind came on like gangbusters in the middle of the afternoon, blowing around 20 or better. A couple class 4 boats on the outside got flipped by the winds and seas.

I thought Puma was outside when he flipped in 2013. We got passed by a lot of police boats heading outside that I assumed were responding to his call.

Posted 5 years ago #
ZeroTheHero
Member

JoeWildlife, Puma sank OFF Sarasota Bay, out in the Gulf. 3-5 miles out iirc. We were in Sarasota Bay when that front hit, it got very steep in there.

Posted 5 years ago #
JoeWildlife
Member

my mistake re: Puma's location. I saw a USCG, Sarasota Police, and a Game & Fish go by, if I remember each in big twin engine boats, plus the big plane, maybe the USCG helicopter? When I was in Sarasota bay so I just figured it all went down further down the bay.

Lugnut very good info!

Joe

Posted 5 years ago #
Chekika
Member

In south Florida and certainly up to Cape Romano, prevailing winter winds are out of the east (a little NE or SE). When a front comes through, which it regularly does (5-7 days between fronts), winds rotate clockwise--SE, S, SW, W, N, and back NE or E. If it is a strong cold front, winds can stay in the north for a day or 2. This has been a very warm year so far in S FL. Lets hope we get some cool air during the EC. No question you are likely to get headwinds, east to west, when skirting Cape Sable and heading to Key Largo.

Keith

Posted 5 years ago #
KnotSynced
Member

Per Lugnut's Data:

33% of Tampa Bay crossings are moderate to strong north wind.

50% in the last 6 years were north wind.

66% of the last 3 years.

Winter 2009-2010 was an El Nino. There is no where near enough data to find correlation between El Nino and North wind at the start. If there is a correlation between El Nino and prevalence of North Winds, we would need a bunch of historical data to find it.

I just ordered data for St. Petersburg airport wind speed and wind direction. I will look at the last five days of February and first ten days of March from 1999 to 2015. What I look at is the maximum sustained wind that lasts over 2 minutes for each day, the wind direction and the average wind speed for the entire day. I will let you know the percentage of days with wind out of the north, percentage of days with a wind speed over 10 knots from the North and the percentage of days with a wind speed over 10 knots from any direction. This is the best we can do on nailing down the chance of bad conditions at the start this far out.

All of this is junk compared to the weather forcast we get Saturday Morning. That Saturday morning weather forcast is garbage compared to what we see when we are out on Tampa Bay. I learned in 2014 that whatever NOAA said was happening was not what I was seeing on the water.

Got my data while typing this. Will download and do the statistics.

Posted 5 years ago #
KnotSynced
Member

Weather data analysis for St. Petersburg Airport:

Methods: I looked at historical weather data taken at the St. Petersburg Airport. The dates of this historical data were the last five days in February and the first 10 days in March from years 1999 through 2015. The airport is located on the shores of Tampa Bay and is very close to our start position. I looked at average wind speed for the entire day, wind direction and temperature. The total number of days in this dataset was 254, not 255 because data supplied was nonsensical at values of 9999 for one of the days in the date range.

Temperature

1.18% of days in this dataset had a low temperature less than 40 degrees farenheit.

9.84% of days in this dataset had a low temperature less than 50 degrees farenheit.

47.24% of days in this dataset had a low temperature less than 60 degrees farenheit.

Wind:

The wind blew with a northerly component (from 310 degrees to 50 degrees) on 22.04% of days.

The wind blew with an average wind speed above 10 knots from any direction on 23.6% of days.

The wind blew from the North with an average wind speed above 10 knots on 7.09% of days.

Discussion and Conclusions:

The chance of seeing bitter cold weather at the start is about 1%. However there is a 50% chance of seeing temperatures below 60 degrees. Any time the wind chill corrected temperature plus the water temperature (if water temperature is greater than 70) is less than 120 degrees there is a chance of hypothermia. Assuming 70 degree water, we are at significant risk of hypothermia on any day with a significant wind that is below 60 degrees air temperature. So 50% of days have significant risk of hypothermia.

The reason for looking at average wind speed for the day is it tells us whether the day will have times with calm or reasonable winds. I can probably cross Tampa Bay with little issue in a 10 knot wind. Above 10 knots and it gets choppy and I really don't want to be there. Other tribers have different comfort zones. This was tailored to my comfort zone. If the average wind is 10 knots or less, there are likely calm periods during the day or a dead on constant 10 knot wind. Either way, I will cross Tampa Bay on days with average wind at 10 knots or less with little issue. I may wait for times when the wind settles down.

The results show that 23.6% of days have an average wind speed that is greater than 10 knots. Therefore, the chance that we have a day that provides a time for an easy Tampa Bay crossing is 76.4%.

Other data shows the wind blew from the North on 22.05% of days. The wind blew from the North at an average wind speed greater than 10 knots on 7.09% of days.

This data tells me that I have at least a 7% chance of deciding I can't comfortably cross Tampa Bay on the start date. If this happens I probably will not make the CP1 deadline and get a DQ. If this happens, I wait for comfortable weather and paddle to the keys at my pace and on my terms. I will enjoy my time in Florida either way.

Knotsynced

Posted 5 years ago #
KnotSynced
Member

Both 2003 and 2010 were El Nino years.

In 2003 there was only one day with average wind speed above 10 knots. 2003 was way below average. In 2010 there were nine days with average wind speed above 10 knots. 2010 was way above average.

In both 2003 and 2010 there was only 1 day out of the 15 days selected for each year where the wind had a northerly component. That shows a 6% chance of north winds on these years.

The dataset from these two years is too small to draw conclusions. If I were to draw conclusions anyway, I would think that wind strength on an El Nino year is a crap shoot and North winds are less likely than normal. Again, the dataset is too small to draw conclusions, so this is absolute garbage. We would need to look at a lot more El Nino years to get a decent data set. I only have data for two El Nino years.

Posted 5 years ago #
KnotSynced
Member

El Nino temperatures are all over the place too.

2003 had only one day with a low temp below 60. Nothing was below 50.

In 2010 everyday had a low temperature below 60 and 9 of the 15 days had low temperatures below 50 degrees farenheit.

So 2003 was abnormally warm during the 15 days surrounding the EC and 2010 was abnormally cold in the same time period.

Posted 5 years ago #
KnotSynced
Member

El Nino temperatures are all over the place too.

2003 had only one day with a low temp below 60. Nothing was below 50.

In 2010 everyday had a low temperature below 60 and 9 of the 15 days had low temperatures below 50 degrees farenheit.

So 2003 was abnormally warm during the 15 days surrounding the EC and 2010 was abnormally cold in the same time period.

Enough of this number crunching. I need to go to sleep. You can download your own historical data from the National Buoy Data Center or from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/.

Posted 5 years ago #
Bermudaboy
Member

I just want cozy warm for us, and freezing, paralize-inducin cold for the longer lizards. (& flat seas, W 12knts leaving Flamingo, and one of those boats that sells icecream, beer and bait, and ....)

Posted 5 years ago #
BeastOarman
Member

Thanks for crunching the numbers, KnotSynced. BTW, if you do a weather hold on the beach with good reason, there is a strong likelihood you can get an extension on the CP1 deadline. Even without that, a late afternoon launch after the wind eases and an all-nighter can still get you there by noon.

The problem I have with averages is that there is an almost 0% chance of those occuring. I will count on a balmy 40 degrees and a 15+ knot headwind for the duration, so that leaves plenty of room for me to be pleasantly surprised. Following seas are my friend, because as a rower I look at things differently ; )

That said, I will count on my open cockpit swamping during the crossing and will be prepared to deal with it.

I need to practice that which I am most concerned to face, to fully understand the limits of my boat and my skills.

Posted 5 years ago #
KnotSynced
Member

Beast,
You said that part about practicing to know the limits well. Also, thanks for the reminder on the weather hold rule.

My last kayak was slightly less than 15 feet and sat proper in the water with my weight. Problem was that size boat can't carry all of the required equipment and my heavy weight.

So I got a big expedition boat. With only paddler weight, it sits proud on the water, allowing chop and wind to be quite a nuisance.

In a few weeks I am paddling a 240 mile expedition. I will probably be more comfortable after putting those hours in a loaded boat in various sea conditions.

Knotsynced

Posted 5 years ago #
KnotSynced
Member

Beast,
You said that part about practicing to know the limits well. Also, thanks for the reminder on the weather hold rule.

My last kayak was slightly less than 15 feet and sat proper in the water with my weight. The boat didn't have the needed storage and load carrying.

So I got a big expedition boat. With only paddler weight, it sits proud on the water, allowing chop and wind to be quite a nuisance. It has been a steep learning curve.

In a few weeks I am paddling a 240 mile expedition. I hope to be more comfortable with more time spent in the new boat.

DancesWithWaves brought the boat to me from Florida at the BBC. Paddledancer briefly thought I planned to use the boat in the BBC and was alarmed. I now understand why she was alarmed and it was not without merit.

Knotsynced

Posted 5 years ago #
WindwardMark
Member

Wow KnotSynced, you really dug into the numbers. Maybe this link would be of interest. The NOAA National Weather Service in Tampa did a statistical analysis of meteorological data for south Florida since 1950 to consider the influence of El Nino on south Florida weather.

Past El Nino years have brought colder, wetter, and stormier than normal weather to south Florida in January to April.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/?n=tampabayelninopage

Posted 5 years ago #
lugnut
Member

WindwardMark, that correlates with my experience. The coldest year I recall was 2010 (followed by 2013 and 2007).

Some further thoughts on crossing Tampa Bay: It's usually pretty bumpy but last year was more than normal. The only year it was that rough was 2007 and it exacted a toll on the much smaller fleet. I saw 2 kayaks flip (and towed one back to the beach) and I think around 5 boats were out by the time they got across the bay or a little further. There were a couple broken masts, a hatch problem, and one boat was holed by a submerged object. IIRC, the Coast Guard made some rescues in the bay, but none involved WaterTribers. I think the guy who was holed was towed by a private boat to the CG station but not actually picked up by them. Anyway, the lesson is be ready once you leave the beach, Tampa Bay can be one of the toughest parts of the course. Not counting the launch, I think of it as the first real filter.

Another interesting correlation: I think 2009 and 2014 were the two lightest air events of recent years. I "think" because I wasn't on the water, those being the years Wingnut and I were running the Flamingo CP. FWIW, we are NOT running Flamingo or any other CP this year. Also, 2009 was a year without any fronts during the EC. Land and sea breezes predominated and the wind blew from the east without exception between Flamingo and the finish.

Posted 5 years ago #